Liberal Arts Blog — The Failure of Proposition 16 in California — a Quantitative ootnote to the 2020 Presidential Election
Liberal Arts Blog — Monday is the Joy of Math, Statistics, and Numbers Day
Today’s Topic — The Failure of Proposition 16 in California — a quantitative footnote to the 2020 Presidential Election
Details matter. Math matters. To me the most important quantitative footnote to the November 2020 election is the margin of failure of Proposition 16 which would have restored affirmative action to the state of California. What to you is the biggest quantitative surprise of the November election? Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.
THE BIG NUMBERS: 57% against, 43% in favor
1. Even though Biden and Harris supported Proposition 16.
2. Even though Biden-Harris carried the state 2 to 1.
3. The margin of rejection of affirmative widened from 1996 (when the spread was 55% opposed, 45% in favor) even though, over the same period, the margin of victory for the Democratic Presidential candidate (Clinton in 1996, Biden in 2020) widened by 12% points!!!!
NB: But, by sharp contrast, the measure had passed the California state Assembly by a margin of 60 to 14 and in the state Senate by 30 to 10 !!!!! The gap between elite opinion and public opinion is huge!
THE BIG MONEY GAP: $27 MM (in favor of affirmative action), $1.7 MM against
1. Big money supporters of Prop 16 included the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Balmer, former CEO of Microsoft, the owners of the San Francisco 49ers, the San Francisco Giants and the LA Dodgers, the California Teachers Association, Blue Cross, Pacific Gas and Electric. Biggest single donor: $6.7 MM.
2. Opponents were largely Asian Americans of modest means. Largest contribution: $50,000.
3. More evidence that money may matter less than most think.
THE NATIONAL CONTEXT: STATES THAT HAVE REJECTED AFFIRMATIVE ACTION
1. By ballot: Washington, Michigan, Nebraska, Arizona, Oklahoma.
2. By legislation: New Hampshire and Idaho.
3. By executive order: Florida.
NB: Ward Connerly, the African American leader of the opposition to Prop 16: “37.7% of people in our country live in state free of preferences.” Is it not ironic that blue California has banned affirmative action and red Texas has not?
THE COUNTY LEVEL: 58 against only 6 in favor of affirmative action
1. Five of the 6 counties in favor were in the Bay Area.
2. LA was the only other county in favor — with 51% supports.
3. Biden-Harris got 73% of the vote in Santa Clara County, the “home of Silicon Valley,” but Proposition 16 lost 53% to 47%. Asian Americans are 34% of voters there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_California_Proposition_16
Opinion | The Duo That Defeated the ‘Diversity Industry’
Opinion | California may have foreshadowed the end of affirmative action
The article below has interesting maps based on polls. Are there better ones showing the actual voting? If so, please share.
California ballot measure to lift ban on affirmative action widely opposed by surveyed voters
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YOUR TURN
So what are your personal favorite magic numbers? What do they stand for? Please share the coolest thing you learned this week related to math, statistics, or numbers in general. Or, even better, the coolest or most important thing you learned in your life related to math.
This is your chance to make someone else’s day. And to consolidate in your memory something you might otherwise forget. Or to think more deeply than otherwise about something dear to your heart. Continuity is key to depth of thought.
