Thinking Citizen Blog — Afghanistan (Part II): Doing the Cost/Benefit Analysis

Thinking Citizen Blog — Monday is Foreign Policy Day

Today’s Topic: Afghanistan (Part II): Doing the Cost/Benefit Analysis

Was the Afghan war “a forever war”? Did the costs outweigh the benefits? Or were the incremental costs relatively small and the benefits huge? Has Afghanistan once again become a “cradle for Jihadism”? Today, some excerpts from an article by Jeff Jacoby in the Boston Globe written 10 days before the double suicide bombing at the Kabul airport. Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.

THE “FOREVER WAR” LABEL IS NOT APPROPRIATE

1. “Yes the United States as been involved in Afghanistan for almost 20 years, but the last time American forces suffered any combat casualties was Feb. 8, 2020.”

2. “It makes little sense to speak of a “forever war” in which there are no fatalities for a year and a half.”

3. “Nor does it make sense to apply that label to a mission involving just 2,500 troops, which was the tiny size to which the US footprint in Afghanistan had shrunk by the time Biden took office. There are more American military personnel than that assigned to the East African nation of Djibouti (3,000), the Rota Naval Station in Spain (3,000), and the Persian Gulf monarchy of Bahrain (5,000).”

NB: “The US military presence in Afghanistan was nowhere near as “endless” as some other deployments. American soldiers entered Germany in 1944 and 35,000 American soldiers are there today.”

WHAT HAS THE UNITED STATES ACCOMPLISHED?

1. “Literacy among Afghans has doubled since the Americans arrived in 2001.”

2. “Infant mortality rates fell by half.”

3. “When US forces entered Afghanistan, just 900,000 children attended school, all of them boys. Earlier this year, that number had reached more than 9.5 million, and 39% were girls.”

THE COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS

1. “All of this was being sustained in recent years, and the Taliban was being held at bay, with just a handful of US troops to provide intelligence, logistics, and air support.” (Jacoby)

2. “Once American credibility had been established, the marginal cost of staying the course was minimal.” (Timothy Kane, former Army intelligence officer)

3. “The cost of throwing it away will be far, far, higher.” (Jacoby)

The myth that Afghanistan was a ‘forever’ war — The Boston Globe

Afghanistan, Again, Becomes a Cradle for Jihadism — and Al Qaeda

Here is a link to the last three years of posts organized by theme:

PDF with headlines — Google Drive

YOUR TURN

Please share the coolest or most important thing you learned in the last week, month, or year related to foreign policy. Or, even better, the coolest or most important thing you learned in our life related to foreign policy.

This is your chance to make someone else’s day. And to consolidate in your memory something important you might otherwise forget.

Or to think more deeply than otherwise about something dear to your heart. Continuity is the key to depth of thought. The prospect of imminent publication, like hanging and final exams, concentrates the mind. A useful life long habit.