Thinking Citizen Blog — How Bad Was the Democratic “Catastrophe”?

Thinking Citizen Blog — Sunday is Political Process, Campaign Strategy, and Candidate Selection Day

Today’s Topic — How bad was the Democratic “catastrophe”? Just more hype? Who really won in November?

Trump got many more votes than expected. More than any Presidential candidate ever — except for Joe Biden. The Democrats lost 10 seats in the House and did not win the Senate (yet). Control of the Senate is down to two run-off races in Georgia which could take the Democrats to 50 seats with Vice President Harris holding the tie-breaking vote. But at the level of state legislatures the news is more bleak. “Republicans won almost every election where redistricting was at stake.” (FiveThirtyEight). At the end of the post is a fascinating footnote added at the very last minute. Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.

WHY THE DOWN-BALLOT MATTERS — and the Texas disappointment

1. “The GOP’s victories in state-level elections could pay dividends long after Biden leaves office thanks to their influence over next year’s redistricting process.”

2. “The Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 per cent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats or 17 per cent.”

3. The biggest win for Republicans was Texas where the Democrats had a chance of flipping nine seats. Instead they flipped zero.

OTHER STATES — Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia

1. “Republicans successfully defended the Pennsylvania legislature from a Democratic takeover, although they’ll still need to share redistricting power over the projected 17 congressional districts, as Democratic Governor Tom Wolf has veto power.”

2. “Republicans held the majority in both chambers of the North Carolina legislature, which will enable them to draw an expected 14 congressional districts all by themselves.”

3. “Amendment 1 passed in Virginia taking the power to draw the state’s 11 congressional districts out of the hands of the all-Democratic state government and investing it in a bipartisan commission made up of a mix of citizens and legislators.”

BUT LET’S NOT EXAGGERATE THE DEBACLE

1.“That said, the House map overall might still be less biased in the 2020s than it was in the 2020s. While it’s true that Republicans are set to draw many more congressional districts than Democrats, they will still draw fewer than they did in 2011.”

2. “in addition at least 167 districts or 38% of the House will be drawn by independent commissions or by both parties sharing power. That’s up from 145 (33%) in 2011.”

3. “Furthermore, some redistricting process still controlled by one party — think Ohio’s or Utah’s — have new rules in place designed to encourage more neutral maps.”

FASCINATING FOOTNOTE: A Harris-Harvard poll conducted ten days after the election revealed that a majority of Americans favor divided government!!!!!!!

With a Biden presidency, Americans prefer a Republican-controlled Senate by a margin of 56% to 44%. This contrasts sharply with the absolutely even split between Republicans and Democrats at the level of Congressional voting (47%/47%). Maybe the real winner in the election was the very, very, very boring moderate majority! (see last two links below)

Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake

‘A huge catastrophe’: Democrats grapple with congressional and state election losses

Opinion | Divided government is a path to disaster. Why won’t voters admit it?

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/HHP_Nov-20_FNL.pdf

Here is a link to the last three years of posts organized by theme:

PDF with headlines — Google Drive

YOUR TURN

Please share the coolest thing you learned in the last week related to political process or campaign strategy or 2020 candidate selection or anything else for that matter.

This is your chance to make some one else’s day or change their thinking. Or to consolidate in your own memory something worth remembering that might otherwise be lost. Or to clarify or deepen your own understanding of something dear to your heart. Continuity is key to depth of thought.