Thinking Citizen Blog — Iran And Israel: Hard Questions, Hard Facts, War Now Or War Later? Wrong Question?
Thinking Citizen Blog — Monday is Foreign Policy Day
Today’s Topic: Iran and Israel: hard questions, hard facts, war now or war later? wrong question?
Is war inevitable? If you were in charge of Israel what would you do? Does strategy say one thing and politics another? Is the right analogy Germany and France in 1935?
Or is it Germany and France in 1914? Is the world “on the precipice of a war no one wants”? Is war now or war later the wrong question? If so, what is the right question?
Today, excerpts from an op-ed piece by Seth Cropsey, formerly a lieutenant commander in the US Navy and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush.
Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.
“STRATEGY ARGUES FOR NOW, EVEN IF THE POLITICS MIGHT BE BETTER LATER”
1. “The political conditions for war now are poor. The strategic conditions later will only grow worse.”
2. “Iran’s goal is to destroy Israel as a uniquely Jewish state through a strategy of attrition.”
3. “Hamas is the most apparent element of Iran’s strategy. Iran wants the terrorist organization not only to maintain control of Gaza but to catapult itself into control of the Palestinian movement. The best way to do that is to compel the Israelis to accept a cosmetically appealing “peace agreement” involving the Arab states that allows Hamas to integrate into the Palestinian Authority and co-opt its necrotic rival, Fatah. The West Bank could then become another axis of pressure on Israel.”
FROM GAZA TO THE WEST BANK
1. “By manipulating the US into restraining Israel, Iran hopes to keep Israel frozen and slowly erode its will.”
2. “At some point in the coming months, Iran expects a cease-fire that will allow it to capture the West Bank and threaten Israel’s existence.”
3. “Constant mobilization is eroding military and economic morale in Israel.”
THE 1935 TO 1940 ANALOGY AND THE NEED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION
1. “Israel isn’t the first power faced with an unpleasant choice between undermining an alliance relationship and acting decisively against a threat.”
2. “France had a similar dilemma in the 1930s. From 1945 to 1940, France balked at acting alone against Nazi Germany even though it had several opportunities to do so with reasonable chances of success.”
3. “The French political establishment assumed that when war with Germany came, France would fight alongside Britain in a revived Entente Cordiale.”
NB: In May 1940, Germany cut through French defenses like a knife through butter and Paris fell on June 14th. What if Hitler had had an atomic bomb? What if France had had an atomic bomb? Israel already has many.
Iran could get some soon. What is to be done? What would you do if you were in the White House? What would you do if you were in Netanyahu’s shoes? How about Khamenei’s?
Opinion | War Between Israel and Iran Is Inevitable
The Iran-Israel War Is Just Getting Started
Opinion | The Middle East is on the precipice of the wider war no one wants
Iran–Israel relations — Wikipedia
QUOTE OF THE MONTH — Have you made your own Bible yet?
“Make your own Bible. Select and collect all the words and sentences that in all your readings have been to you like the blast of a trumpet.”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
My spin — then periodically review, re-rank, and exchange your list with those you love. I call this the “Orion Exchange” because seven is about as many as any human can digest at a time. Game?
ATTACHMENTS BELOW:
#1 A graphic guide to justice (9 metaphors on one page).
#2 “39 Songs, Prayers, and Poems: the Keys to the Hearts of Seven Billion People” — Adams House Senior Common Room Presentation, (11/17/20)
NB: Palestine Orion (Decision) — let’s exchange Orions, let’s find Rumi’s field (“Beyond all ideas of right and wrong, there is a field. Meet me there” Rumi, 13 century Persian Sufi mystic)
Here is a link to the last four years of posts organized by theme: (including the book on foreign policy)
PDF with headlines — Google Drive
YOUR TURN
Please share the coolest or most important thing you learned in the last week, month, or year related to foreign policy.
Or, even better, the coolest or most important thing you learned in our life related to foreign policy.
This is your chance to make someone else’s day. And to consolidate in your memory something important you might otherwise forget.
Or to think more deeply than otherwise about something dear to your heart. Continuity is the key to depth of thought. The prospect of imminent publication, like hanging and final exams, concentrates the mind. A useful life long habit.
