Thinking Citizen Blog — The Worst Jobs Report in History
Thinking Citizen Blog — Tuesday is Economics, Finance, and Business Day
Today’s topic: The Worst Jobs Report in History — what shape will the recovery take? What is to be done?
In March 870,000 jobs were lost. In April 20.5 million. And it’s worse than that. 6.8 million workers have left the labor force and are not counted in the 20.5 million. Is it time to lift the lockdown? Where? When? Will we have a “V” shaped recovery or a very flat, extended one? Today, excerpts from an article by Andy Kessler. Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.
ONCE METEOROLOGISTS, NOW WE’RE ALL EPIDEMIOLOGISTS AND ECONOMISTS
1. “For all us former at-home meteorologists turned self-appointed epidemiologists predicting everything from barely a flu to an epidemic apocalypse of infection rates and ventilator shortages, I’ve got some good news.”
2. “As the corona clampdown is (please) coming to an end, there’s a new parlor game sweeping the nation.”
3. “Now, as newly minted economists, we all get to predict the shape and span of the economic recovery.”
THE STOCK MARKET JUST DID A “V” — WILL THE ECONOMY DO THE SAME?
1. “The yo-yo stock market just performed the double feat of an insta-bear 37% drop followed by an up-26% insta-bull.”
2. “And what do I think? U? V? W? X, as in none? I’m glad you asked. Forget letters — the engineer in me thinks we’ll see a square root recovery: up, down, up, and then flat”
3. “In other words, after hurling the economy off a cliff, we may see a short sharp rebound comeback, the proverbial dead-cat bounce, and then basically a flatline, with zero to 2% GDP growth until the damage is assessed and the debt dominoes start to clear.”
SERIOUS DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE, IT WON’T BE EASY
1. “With airplanes idle, hotels empty, theaters going bust, stores like Neiman Marcus threatening chapter 11 and oil going subzero last week, all signs suggest serious damage to the economy.” (Since Kessler wrote this, Neiman Marcus and J. Crew have in fact gone bust.)
2. “Even if lockdowns ease, few shoppers will show up, then stores stop paying rent and reordering goods, mortgage payments are missed, banks start writing down bad loans and even go under, holders of collateralized debt start to fail, and the Fed stays in bailout mode.”
3. “Dominoes fall and lots of people and businesses get hurt….Actually, if we’re locked down until June we could see, to borrow an acronym, a WWW-shaped recovery.”
YOUR TURN — Please share:
a.) the coolest thing you learned this week related to business, economics, finance.
b.) the coolest thing you learned in your life related to business, economics, finance.
c.) anything at all related to business, economics, finance.
d.) anything at all