Thinking Citizen Blog — What is the Lesson of the Ukraine War for South Korea?
Thinking Citizen Blog — Monday is Foreign Policy Day
Today’s Topic: What is the Lesson of the Ukraine War for South Korea?
The Ukraine War will be the defining event for a generation as World War II was, as the Vietnam War was. What is the lesson to be learned? This is not an academic question for the current leaders of South Korea, Israel, and every other nation on earth. It is also an important question for anyone trying to assess the legacy of past presidents of the United States, notably George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. Today, the first of a projected series on the lessons of the Ukraine War. This installment focuses on the South Korean perspective. Future posts will look at the Ukraine from different angles: from Israel, India, and from the perspective of assessing the legacies of past presidents. Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.
SOUTH KOREA — IS IT TIME TO DEVELOP A NUCLEAR CAPABILITY? (see first link below)
1. “Seoul abandoned a covert program in the 1970s, but some argue it is time for the country to embrace its nuclear ambitions and safeguard against a Russia-style invasion.”
2. “Since the conflict began, South Koreans have flooded online chat rooms with discussion about their country’s need to have nuclear weapons to prevent an invasion from North Korea, their own nuclear-armed neighbor.
3. “On Tuesday, North Korea warned that it would use its nuclear weapons ‘at the outset of war’ should one with the South ever start.”
NB: “In one recent survey of South Koreans, 71% of the respondents supported arming the country with nuclear weapons.”
A CHILLING REMINDER — A TRUTH TO SWEEP UNDER THE RUG?
1. “The war in Ukraine is a chilling reminder that when things get really dicey, there is a limit to how much your friends can do for you.” (Cho Kyong-hwan, member, Presidential Commission on Policy Planning)
2. “At the end of the day, you only have your own power to defend yourself.”
IS THE PARALLEL MISLEADING? Is there in any real comfort in the “Global Fire Power Ranking System which ranks conventional warfare fighting ability? How important is the relative size of the armies? (see links 2,3,4 below)
1. Russia ranked 2nd, Ukraine 22nd.
2. South Korea: ranked 6th, North Korea 30th.
3. The South Korean army has 650,000 active duty soldiers and 3,750,000 reservists. The North Korean army has 950,000 active duty and 7,620,000 reservists
NB: Ukraine is not a member of NATO and South Korea has a mutual defense treaty with the US. But is that treaty worth the paper it is written on? “For South Koreans, the war has shown the extent to which a nuclear-armed power can get away with invading a non-nuclear neighbor when fears of nuclear war make intervention less likely.” In the words of Lee Sang-min, a senior lawmaker affiliated with the governing Democratic Party, “We don’t see global American leadership anymore. Instead, we rather find it feckless and helpless.”
IN 1991, THE US WITHDREW ALL ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM SOUTH KOREA BUT NORTH KOREA KEPT BUILDING UP ITS ARSENAL
1. Prior to the withdrawal, the nuclear weapons numbered 950. The reduction was part of a global nuclear arms reduction program.
2. “South Koreans have more than a belligerent North Korea in mind: In the Carnegie Endowment survey, 56% of the respondents said that China would be the biggest threat to South Korea in the next 10 years.”
3. Remember that South Korea faces “three nuclear states to the north and west: Russia, China, and North Korea.”
AND WHAT IF CHINA INVADES TAIWAN?
1. “Would North Korea, Beijing’s ally, see that as an opportunity to invade the South?”
2. “And if Washington were facing conflicts in both Taiwan and South Korea, how would it respond?
CONCLUSION — Questions worth thinking about or sweeping under the rug?
So if you were South Korean what policy would you support? How reliable is the United States? Would you trust President Biden to give South Korea the full nuclear backing of the United States? As a citizen of the United States, would you want him to?
In South Korea, Ukraine War Revives the Nuclear Question
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army_Ground_Force
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron
ATTACHMENTS BELOW:
#1 A graphic guide to justice (9 metaphors on one page).
#2 “39 Songs, Prayers, and Poems: the Keys to the Hearts of Seven Billion People” — Adams House Senior Common Room Presentation, 11/17/20
Here is a link to the last four years of posts organized by theme: (including the book on foreign policy)
PDF with headlines — Google Drive
YOUR TURN
Please share the coolest or most important thing you learned in the last week, month, or year related to foreign policy. Or, even better, the coolest or most important thing you learned in our life related to foreign policy.
This is your chance to make someone else’s day. And to consolidate in your memory something important you might otherwise forget. Or to think more deeply than otherwise about something dear to your heart. Continuity is the key to depth of thought. The prospect of imminent publication, like hanging and final exams, concentrates the mind. A useful life long habit.
