Thinking Citizen Blog — “Will Robert F. Kennedy Swing The Election To Biden? “ (Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)

John Muresianu
5 min readJun 9, 2024

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Thinking Citizen Blog — Sunday is Political Process Reform, Campaign Strategy, and Candidate Selection Day

Today’s Topic: “Will Robert F. Kennedy Swing the Election to Biden? “ (Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)

A recent Gallup poll suggests that 63% of Americans, frustrated with both the Democratic and Republican parties would like to see a strong third party. However, the chances of one materialising appear to be about zero. However, third parties can swing elections. Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West have this effect in 2024? Which way?

Today, excerpts from an article by veteran political analyst Karl Rove. Experts — please chime in. Correct, elaborate, elucidate.

DID JILL STEIN COST HILARY CLINTON THE ELECTION IN 2016? The case of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (below Jill Stein of the Green Party)

1. “In 2016 the Green Party’s candidate, Ms. Stein, got more votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that Mr. Trump’s margin of victory in those states.”

2. “If you assume most of those votes would have gone to Mrs. Clinton, Ms. Stein cost her the White House.”

DO YOU REMEMBER THE ELECTION OF 2020 AND THE ROLE OF JO JORGENSEN?

1. “The Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen took more votes in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin than Mr. Biden’s margin of victory.”

2. Jorgensen had previously been the Libertarian’s vice presidential nominee in 1996.

3. Gary Johnson, former Governor of New Mexico was the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate in 2012 and 2016.

THE STATUS OF THE ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR CAMPAIGN — the window is still open

1. Kennedy is on the ballot in 14 states with 201 electoral votes.

2. Two of those are battleground states — Nevada and Michigan.

3. “The campaign is working in 33 other states where the window for collecting signatures is open.”

BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE WORRIED

1. “Democrats are particularly concerned that Messrs. Kenney and West and Ms. Stein could siphon off black, Hispanic, young and progressive voters.”

2. “Democrats are extremely unsettled by Mr. Kennedy, whose name recognition is much better than most third-party hopefuls. He’s the fourth Kennedy to seek the presidency following John F. Kenney in 1960; his father Robert, in 1968; and Ted Kennedy in 1980. RFK, Jr. is a long time environmental activist and lawyer who has sued companies, states and local governments over pollution.”

3. On the other hand, many voters on the right are extremely prone to conspiracy theories and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has a surplus of them. He believes that vaccines cause autism and that the CIA is a bigger threat to the United States than China, that agribusiness is “waging war on our health through the food pyramid and degrading our soil. The 2004 election was stolen. WiFi and 5 G cause cancer. Chemicals in our water may spread transgenderism. HIV may not cause AIDS. Sirhan Sirhan did not kill RFK, Sr. Antidepressants may cause school shootings.”

NB: “After stunts like Russiagate, decades of mainstream media bias, and years of QAnon nonsense, voters on the right are particularly prone to embrace conspiracies from fringe sources.

Mr. Kennedy could use these outlandish claims to pry more than a few wackos off Mr. Trump, perhaps enough to hand the election to Mr. Biden.”

FOOTNOTE — a little historical background — remember Ross Perot (below)?

1. “Third party vote splitting exceeded a president’s margin of victory in three elections: 1844, 2000, and 2016.”

2. “No third-party candidate has won the presidency since the Republican Party became the second major party in 1856.”

3. “Since then a third-party won states in five elections: 1892, 1012, 1924, 1948, and 1968.”

NB: “1992 was the last time a third-party candidate won over 5% of the vote and placed second in any state.” (In 1992, Ross Perot got 18.9% of the popular vote but 0 electoral votes.)

Opinion | Will RFK Jr. Swing the Election to Biden?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Wikipedia

Jill Stein — Wikipedia

Jo Jorgensen 2020 presidential campaign — Wikipedia

Cornel West — Wikipedia

Gary Johnson — Wikipedia

Third party (U.S. politics) — Wikipedia

https://www.quora.com/Did-Ralph-Nader-truly-tip-the-2000-election-in-favor-of-George-W-Bush-Wouldn-t-most-of-Nader-s-voters-simply-have-not-even-voted-at-all-had-Nader-not-been-on-the-ballot

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

“Make your own Bible. Select and collect all the words and sentences that in all your readings have been to you like the blast of a trumpet.”

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

My spin — then periodically review, re-rank, and exchange your list with those you love. I call this the “Orion Exchange” because seven is about as many as any human can digest at a time. Game?

LAST FOUR YEARS OF POSTS ORGANIZED THEMATICALLY

PDF with headlines — Google Drive

ATTACHMENTS BELOW:

#1 A graphic guide to justice (9 metaphors on one page).

#2 “39 Songs, Prayers, and Poems: the Keys to the Hearts of Seven Billion People” — Adams House Senior Common Room Presentation, (11/17/20)

#3 Israel-Palestine Handout

NB: Palestine Orion (Decision) — let’s exchange Orions, let’s find Rumi’s field (“Beyond all ideas of right and wrong, there is a field. Meet me there” Rumi, 13 century Persian Sufi mystic)

YOUR TURN

Please share the coolest thing you learned in the last week related to political process or campaign strategy or 2020 candidate selection or anything else for that matter.

This is your chance to make some one else’s day or change their thinking.

Or to consolidate in your own memory something worth remembering that might otherwise be lost. Or to clarify or deepen your own understanding of something dear to your heart. Continuity is key to depth of thought.

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John Muresianu

Passionate about education, thinking citizenship, art, and passing bits on of wisdom of a long lifetime.